Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Only 1 in 6 US veterans with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is tested for hepatitis D virus (HDV)—a coinfection associated with significantly higher risks of cirrhosis and hepatic decompensation—according to new findings.

The low testing rate suggests limited awareness of HDV-associated risks in patients with CHB, and underscores the need for earlier testing and diagnosis, lead author Robert J. Wong, MD, of Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, and colleagues, reported.

“Data among US populations are lacking to describe the epidemiology and long-term outcomes of patients with CHB and concurrent HDV infection,” the investigators wrote in Gastro Hep Advances (2025 Oct. doi: 10.1016/j.gastha.2024.10.015).

Prior studies have found that only 6% to 19% of patients with CHB get tested for HDV, and among those tested, the prevalence is relatively low—between 2% and 4.6%. Although relatively uncommon, HDV carries a substantial clinical and economic burden, Dr. Wong and colleagues noted, highlighting the importance of clinical awareness and accurate epidemiologic data.

The present study analyzed data from the Veterans Affairs (VA) Corporate Data Warehouse between 2010 and 2023. Adults with CHB were identified based on laboratory-confirmed markers and ICD-9/10 codes. HDV testing (anti-HDV antibody and HDV RNA) was assessed, and predictors of testing were evaluated using multivariable logistic regression.

To examine liver-related outcomes, patients who tested positive for HDV were propensity score–matched 1:2 with CHB patients who tested negative. Matching accounted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, HBeAg status, antiviral treatment, HCV and HIV coinfection, diabetes, and alcohol use. Patients with cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at base-line were excluded. Incidence of cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and HCC was estimated using competing risks Nelson-Aalen methods.

Among 27,548 veterans with CHB, only 16.1% underwent HDV testing. Of those tested, 3.25% were HDV positive. Testing rates were higher among patients who were HBeAg positive, on antiviral therapy, or identified as Asian or Pacific Islander.

Conversely, testing was significantly less common among patients with high-risk alcohol use, past or current drug use, cirrhosis at diagnosis, or HCV coinfection. In contrast, HIV coinfection was associated with increased odds of being tested.

Among those tested, HDV positivity was more likely in patients with HCV coinfection, cirrhosis, or a history of drug use. On multivariable analysis, these factors were independent predictors of HDV positivity.

In the matched cohort of 71 HDV-positive patients and 140 HDV-negative controls, the incidence of cirrhosis was more than 3-fold higher in HDV-positive patients (4.39 vs 1.30 per 100,000 person-years; P less than .01), and hepatic decompensation was over 5 times more common (2.18 vs 0.41 per 100,000 person-years; P = .01). There was also a non-significant trend toward increased HCC risk in the HDV group.

“These findings align with existing studies and confirm that among a predominantly non-Asian US cohort of CHB patients, presence of concurrent HDV is associated with more severe liver disease progression,” the investigators wrote. “These observations, taken together with the low rates of HDV testing overall and particularly among high-risk individuals, emphasizes the need for greater awareness and novel strategies on how to improve HDV testing and diagnosis, particularly given that novel HDV therapies are on the near horizon.”

The study was supported by Gilead. The investigators disclosed additional relationships with Exact Sciences, GSK, Novo Nordisk, and others.

Only 1 in 6 US veterans with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is tested for hepatitis D virus (HDV)—a coinfection associated with significantly higher risks of cirrhosis and hepatic decompensation—according to new findings.

The low testing rate suggests limited awareness of HDV-associated risks in patients with CHB, and underscores the need for earlier testing and diagnosis, lead author Robert J. Wong, MD, of Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, and colleagues, reported.

“Data among US populations are lacking to describe the epidemiology and long-term outcomes of patients with CHB and concurrent HDV infection,” the investigators wrote in Gastro Hep Advances (2025 Oct. doi: 10.1016/j.gastha.2024.10.015).

Prior studies have found that only 6% to 19% of patients with CHB get tested for HDV, and among those tested, the prevalence is relatively low—between 2% and 4.6%. Although relatively uncommon, HDV carries a substantial clinical and economic burden, Dr. Wong and colleagues noted, highlighting the importance of clinical awareness and accurate epidemiologic data.

The present study analyzed data from the Veterans Affairs (VA) Corporate Data Warehouse between 2010 and 2023. Adults with CHB were identified based on laboratory-confirmed markers and ICD-9/10 codes. HDV testing (anti-HDV antibody and HDV RNA) was assessed, and predictors of testing were evaluated using multivariable logistic regression.

To examine liver-related outcomes, patients who tested positive for HDV were propensity score–matched 1:2 with CHB patients who tested negative. Matching accounted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, HBeAg status, antiviral treatment, HCV and HIV coinfection, diabetes, and alcohol use. Patients with cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at base-line were excluded. Incidence of cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and HCC was estimated using competing risks Nelson-Aalen methods.

Among 27,548 veterans with CHB, only 16.1% underwent HDV testing. Of those tested, 3.25% were HDV positive. Testing rates were higher among patients who were HBeAg positive, on antiviral therapy, or identified as Asian or Pacific Islander.

Conversely, testing was significantly less common among patients with high-risk alcohol use, past or current drug use, cirrhosis at diagnosis, or HCV coinfection. In contrast, HIV coinfection was associated with increased odds of being tested.

Among those tested, HDV positivity was more likely in patients with HCV coinfection, cirrhosis, or a history of drug use. On multivariable analysis, these factors were independent predictors of HDV positivity.

In the matched cohort of 71 HDV-positive patients and 140 HDV-negative controls, the incidence of cirrhosis was more than 3-fold higher in HDV-positive patients (4.39 vs 1.30 per 100,000 person-years; P less than .01), and hepatic decompensation was over 5 times more common (2.18 vs 0.41 per 100,000 person-years; P = .01). There was also a non-significant trend toward increased HCC risk in the HDV group.

“These findings align with existing studies and confirm that among a predominantly non-Asian US cohort of CHB patients, presence of concurrent HDV is associated with more severe liver disease progression,” the investigators wrote. “These observations, taken together with the low rates of HDV testing overall and particularly among high-risk individuals, emphasizes the need for greater awareness and novel strategies on how to improve HDV testing and diagnosis, particularly given that novel HDV therapies are on the near horizon.”

The study was supported by Gilead. The investigators disclosed additional relationships with Exact Sciences, GSK, Novo Nordisk, and others.

Only 1 in 6 US veterans with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is tested for hepatitis D virus (HDV)—a coinfection associated with significantly higher risks of cirrhosis and hepatic decompensation—according to new findings.

The low testing rate suggests limited awareness of HDV-associated risks in patients with CHB, and underscores the need for earlier testing and diagnosis, lead author Robert J. Wong, MD, of Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, and colleagues, reported.

“Data among US populations are lacking to describe the epidemiology and long-term outcomes of patients with CHB and concurrent HDV infection,” the investigators wrote in Gastro Hep Advances (2025 Oct. doi: 10.1016/j.gastha.2024.10.015).

Prior studies have found that only 6% to 19% of patients with CHB get tested for HDV, and among those tested, the prevalence is relatively low—between 2% and 4.6%. Although relatively uncommon, HDV carries a substantial clinical and economic burden, Dr. Wong and colleagues noted, highlighting the importance of clinical awareness and accurate epidemiologic data.

The present study analyzed data from the Veterans Affairs (VA) Corporate Data Warehouse between 2010 and 2023. Adults with CHB were identified based on laboratory-confirmed markers and ICD-9/10 codes. HDV testing (anti-HDV antibody and HDV RNA) was assessed, and predictors of testing were evaluated using multivariable logistic regression.

To examine liver-related outcomes, patients who tested positive for HDV were propensity score–matched 1:2 with CHB patients who tested negative. Matching accounted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, HBeAg status, antiviral treatment, HCV and HIV coinfection, diabetes, and alcohol use. Patients with cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at base-line were excluded. Incidence of cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and HCC was estimated using competing risks Nelson-Aalen methods.

Among 27,548 veterans with CHB, only 16.1% underwent HDV testing. Of those tested, 3.25% were HDV positive. Testing rates were higher among patients who were HBeAg positive, on antiviral therapy, or identified as Asian or Pacific Islander.

Conversely, testing was significantly less common among patients with high-risk alcohol use, past or current drug use, cirrhosis at diagnosis, or HCV coinfection. In contrast, HIV coinfection was associated with increased odds of being tested.

Among those tested, HDV positivity was more likely in patients with HCV coinfection, cirrhosis, or a history of drug use. On multivariable analysis, these factors were independent predictors of HDV positivity.

In the matched cohort of 71 HDV-positive patients and 140 HDV-negative controls, the incidence of cirrhosis was more than 3-fold higher in HDV-positive patients (4.39 vs 1.30 per 100,000 person-years; P less than .01), and hepatic decompensation was over 5 times more common (2.18 vs 0.41 per 100,000 person-years; P = .01). There was also a non-significant trend toward increased HCC risk in the HDV group.

“These findings align with existing studies and confirm that among a predominantly non-Asian US cohort of CHB patients, presence of concurrent HDV is associated with more severe liver disease progression,” the investigators wrote. “These observations, taken together with the low rates of HDV testing overall and particularly among high-risk individuals, emphasizes the need for greater awareness and novel strategies on how to improve HDV testing and diagnosis, particularly given that novel HDV therapies are on the near horizon.”

The study was supported by Gilead. The investigators disclosed additional relationships with Exact Sciences, GSK, Novo Nordisk, and others.

Long-term use of statins may delay or deflect the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in adults with chronic liver disease, as well as in the general population, emerging research, including several large cohort studies, suggested.

The most recent study, published in JAMA Internal Medicine, showed a lower incidence of hepatic decompensation among statin users in a registry for adults aged 40 years or older with baseline chronic liver disease.

“Our findings support the idea that statins may offer benefits beyond lipid-lowering in patients with [chronic liver disease], and clinicians may be more confident in prescribing statins when indicated,” even in these patients, said corresponding Co-author Raymond T. Chung, MD, gastroenterology investigator at Mass General Research Institute, Boston, in an interview. 

“While prior studies have suggested an association between statin use and reduced hepatocellular carcinoma risk, our study aimed to build on that evidence by using a large, real-world, hospital-based cohort inclusive of all etiologies of chronic liver disease,” Chung told GI & Hepatology News.

Chung, along with Jonggi Choi, MD, of the University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea, and colleagues, reviewed data from the Research Patient Data Registry from 2000 to 2023 for 16,501 participantsaged 40 years or older with baseline chronic liver disease and baseline Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) scores ≥ 1.3.

The study population had a mean age of 59.7 years, and 40.9% were women. The researchers divided the population into statin users (n = 3610) and nonusers (n = 12,891). Statin use was defined as a cumulative defined daily dose ≥ 30 mg.

The primary outcome was the cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma and hepatic decompensation.

At 10 years follow-up, statin users showed a significantly reduced incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma vs nonusers (3.8% vs 8.0%; P < .001) as well as a significantly reduced incidence of hepatic decompensation (10.6% vs 19.5%; P < .001).

Incorporating FIB-4 scores, a surrogate marker for liver fibrosis, also showed that statin users were less likely to experience fibrosis progression, offering a potential mechanism of action for the observed reduction in adverse liver outcomes, Chung told GI & Hepatology News.

“Similar trends have been observed in prior observational studies, but our findings now support a real effect of statin use on fibrosis progression,” he said. “However, what strengthened our study was that the association remained consistent across multiple subgroups and sensitivity analyses.”

Another study published in Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology showed a reduced risk of developing severe liver disease in a Swedish cohort of noncirrhotic adults with chronic liver disease who used statins (n = 3862) compared with control patients with chronic liver disease (matched 1:1) and who did not use statins (hazard ratio [HR], 0.60). 

In that study, Rajani Sharma, MD, and colleagues found a protective association in both prefibrosis and fibrosis stages at diagnosis, and statin use was associated with reduced rates of progression to both cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HR, 0.62 and 0.44, respectively).

 

Exciting and Necessary Research

The research by Choi and colleagues is “exciting,” said Bubu Banini, MD, PhD, an assistant professor in digestive diseases at Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, in an interview.

Liver cancer prevalence has risen over the past few decades in the United States and worldwide, and the 5-year overall survival rate of liver cancer is less than 20%, Banini told GI & Hepatology News.

Clinicians often withhold statins out of fear of liver injury in persons with chronic liver disease; however, a takeaway from this study is that for persons with chronic liver disease who have indications for statin use, the medication should not be withheld, she said.

Of course, prospective studies are needed to replicate the results, Banini added.

The study findings were limited by several factors, including the inability to adjust for all potential confounding variables, lack of data on post-index treatments, and the use of wide, cumulative, defined daily dose categories to ensure statistical power, the researchers noted.

“Moving forward, randomized controlled trials are essential to establish a causal relationship and clarify the molecular and clinical pathways through which statins exert hepatoprotective effects,” Chung added.

Randomized controlled trials are also needed to determine whether statins can actually reduce the risk for hepatocellular carcinoma and hepatic decompensation in patients with chronic liver disease, and cost-effectiveness analyses may be essential for translating this evidence into clinical guidelines, he added.

 

Statins and HCC Risk in the General Population

A large cohort study, published in JAMA Network Open by Mara Sophie Vell, PhD, and colleagues, showed an association between reduced risk for hepatocellular carcinoma and statin use in the general population and in those at increased risk for liver disease.

The study, which included data for individuals aged 37-73 years from the UK Biobank, found a 15% reduced risk for new-onset liver disease and a 28% reduced risk for liver-related death among regular statin users than among nonusers (HR, 0.85 and 0.72, respectively). 

In addition, regular statin users showed a 74% reduced risk (P = .003) of developing hepatocellular carcinoma compared with those not using statins. The researchers identified a particular impact on liver disease risk reduction among men, individuals with diabetes, and patients with high levels of liver scarring at baseline based on the FIB-4 index.

A meta-analysis of 24 studies, previously published in the journal Cancers, showed a significant reduction of 46% in hepatocellular carcinoma risk among statins users compared with nonusers.

The researchers found this risk reduction was significant in subgroups of patients with diabetes, liver cirrhosis, and those on antiviral therapy, and they suggested that the antiangiogenic, immunomodulatory, antiproliferative, and antifibrotic properties of statins may contribute to their potential to reduce tumor growth or hepatocellular carcinoma development.

The meta-analysis authors noted that although most studies have reported a low risk for statin-induced hepatotoxicity, clinicians should proceed with caution in some patients with existing cirrhosis.

“If the patients are diagnosed with decompensated cirrhosis, then statins should be prescribed with caution at low doses,” they wrote.

Advocating statin use solely for chemoprevention may be premature based on observational data, Chung told GI & Hepatology News.

“However, in patients with [chronic liver disease] who already meet indications for statin therapy, the potential added benefit of reducing liver-related complications strengthens the rationale for their use,” he said. Future randomized clinical trials will be key to defining the risk-benefit profile in this context.

The study by Choi and colleagues was supported by the National Institutes of Health.

The study by Sharma and colleagues was supported by the Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden, and the Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York City; researchers were supported by grants from the Swedish Research Council, Center for Innovative Medicine, the Swedish Cancer Society, and the National Institutes of Health.

The study by Vell and colleagues had no outside funding.

The study by Mohaimenul Islam and colleagues was supported by the Ministry of Education and Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan.

Chung and Banini had no financial conflicts to disclose.

A version of this article appeared on Medscape.com.

Long-term use of statins may delay or deflect the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in adults with chronic liver disease, as well as in the general population, emerging research, including several large cohort studies, suggested.

The most recent study, published in JAMA Internal Medicine, showed a lower incidence of hepatic decompensation among statin users in a registry for adults aged 40 years or older with baseline chronic liver disease.

“Our findings support the idea that statins may offer benefits beyond lipid-lowering in patients with [chronic liver disease], and clinicians may be more confident in prescribing statins when indicated,” even in these patients, said corresponding Co-author Raymond T. Chung, MD, gastroenterology investigator at Mass General Research Institute, Boston, in an interview. 

“While prior studies have suggested an association between statin use and reduced hepatocellular carcinoma risk, our study aimed to build on that evidence by using a large, real-world, hospital-based cohort inclusive of all etiologies of chronic liver disease,” Chung told GI & Hepatology News.

Chung, along with Jonggi Choi, MD, of the University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea, and colleagues, reviewed data from the Research Patient Data Registry from 2000 to 2023 for 16,501 participantsaged 40 years or older with baseline chronic liver disease and baseline Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) scores ≥ 1.3.

The study population had a mean age of 59.7 years, and 40.9% were women. The researchers divided the population into statin users (n = 3610) and nonusers (n = 12,891). Statin use was defined as a cumulative defined daily dose ≥ 30 mg.

The primary outcome was the cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma and hepatic decompensation.

At 10 years follow-up, statin users showed a significantly reduced incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma vs nonusers (3.8% vs 8.0%; P < .001) as well as a significantly reduced incidence of hepatic decompensation (10.6% vs 19.5%; P < .001).

Incorporating FIB-4 scores, a surrogate marker for liver fibrosis, also showed that statin users were less likely to experience fibrosis progression, offering a potential mechanism of action for the observed reduction in adverse liver outcomes, Chung told GI & Hepatology News.

“Similar trends have been observed in prior observational studies, but our findings now support a real effect of statin use on fibrosis progression,” he said. “However, what strengthened our study was that the association remained consistent across multiple subgroups and sensitivity analyses.”

Another study published in Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology showed a reduced risk of developing severe liver disease in a Swedish cohort of noncirrhotic adults with chronic liver disease who used statins (n = 3862) compared with control patients with chronic liver disease (matched 1:1) and who did not use statins (hazard ratio [HR], 0.60). 

In that study, Rajani Sharma, MD, and colleagues found a protective association in both prefibrosis and fibrosis stages at diagnosis, and statin use was associated with reduced rates of progression to both cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HR, 0.62 and 0.44, respectively).

 

Exciting and Necessary Research

The research by Choi and colleagues is “exciting,” said Bubu Banini, MD, PhD, an assistant professor in digestive diseases at Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, in an interview.

Liver cancer prevalence has risen over the past few decades in the United States and worldwide, and the 5-year overall survival rate of liver cancer is less than 20%, Banini told GI & Hepatology News.

Clinicians often withhold statins out of fear of liver injury in persons with chronic liver disease; however, a takeaway from this study is that for persons with chronic liver disease who have indications for statin use, the medication should not be withheld, she said.

Of course, prospective studies are needed to replicate the results, Banini added.

The study findings were limited by several factors, including the inability to adjust for all potential confounding variables, lack of data on post-index treatments, and the use of wide, cumulative, defined daily dose categories to ensure statistical power, the researchers noted.

“Moving forward, randomized controlled trials are essential to establish a causal relationship and clarify the molecular and clinical pathways through which statins exert hepatoprotective effects,” Chung added.

Randomized controlled trials are also needed to determine whether statins can actually reduce the risk for hepatocellular carcinoma and hepatic decompensation in patients with chronic liver disease, and cost-effectiveness analyses may be essential for translating this evidence into clinical guidelines, he added.

 

Statins and HCC Risk in the General Population

A large cohort study, published in JAMA Network Open by Mara Sophie Vell, PhD, and colleagues, showed an association between reduced risk for hepatocellular carcinoma and statin use in the general population and in those at increased risk for liver disease.

The study, which included data for individuals aged 37-73 years from the UK Biobank, found a 15% reduced risk for new-onset liver disease and a 28% reduced risk for liver-related death among regular statin users than among nonusers (HR, 0.85 and 0.72, respectively). 

In addition, regular statin users showed a 74% reduced risk (P = .003) of developing hepatocellular carcinoma compared with those not using statins. The researchers identified a particular impact on liver disease risk reduction among men, individuals with diabetes, and patients with high levels of liver scarring at baseline based on the FIB-4 index.

A meta-analysis of 24 studies, previously published in the journal Cancers, showed a significant reduction of 46% in hepatocellular carcinoma risk among statins users compared with nonusers.

The researchers found this risk reduction was significant in subgroups of patients with diabetes, liver cirrhosis, and those on antiviral therapy, and they suggested that the antiangiogenic, immunomodulatory, antiproliferative, and antifibrotic properties of statins may contribute to their potential to reduce tumor growth or hepatocellular carcinoma development.

The meta-analysis authors noted that although most studies have reported a low risk for statin-induced hepatotoxicity, clinicians should proceed with caution in some patients with existing cirrhosis.

“If the patients are diagnosed with decompensated cirrhosis, then statins should be prescribed with caution at low doses,” they wrote.

Advocating statin use solely for chemoprevention may be premature based on observational data, Chung told GI & Hepatology News.

“However, in patients with [chronic liver disease] who already meet indications for statin therapy, the potential added benefit of reducing liver-related complications strengthens the rationale for their use,” he said. Future randomized clinical trials will be key to defining the risk-benefit profile in this context.

The study by Choi and colleagues was supported by the National Institutes of Health.

The study by Sharma and colleagues was supported by the Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden, and the Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York City; researchers were supported by grants from the Swedish Research Council, Center for Innovative Medicine, the Swedish Cancer Society, and the National Institutes of Health.

The study by Vell and colleagues had no outside funding.

The study by Mohaimenul Islam and colleagues was supported by the Ministry of Education and Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan.

Chung and Banini had no financial conflicts to disclose.

A version of this article appeared on Medscape.com.

Long-term use of statins may delay or deflect the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in adults with chronic liver disease, as well as in the general population, emerging research, including several large cohort studies, suggested.

The most recent study, published in JAMA Internal Medicine, showed a lower incidence of hepatic decompensation among statin users in a registry for adults aged 40 years or older with baseline chronic liver disease.

“Our findings support the idea that statins may offer benefits beyond lipid-lowering in patients with [chronic liver disease], and clinicians may be more confident in prescribing statins when indicated,” even in these patients, said corresponding Co-author Raymond T. Chung, MD, gastroenterology investigator at Mass General Research Institute, Boston, in an interview. 

“While prior studies have suggested an association between statin use and reduced hepatocellular carcinoma risk, our study aimed to build on that evidence by using a large, real-world, hospital-based cohort inclusive of all etiologies of chronic liver disease,” Chung told GI & Hepatology News.

Chung, along with Jonggi Choi, MD, of the University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea, and colleagues, reviewed data from the Research Patient Data Registry from 2000 to 2023 for 16,501 participantsaged 40 years or older with baseline chronic liver disease and baseline Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) scores ≥ 1.3.

The study population had a mean age of 59.7 years, and 40.9% were women. The researchers divided the population into statin users (n = 3610) and nonusers (n = 12,891). Statin use was defined as a cumulative defined daily dose ≥ 30 mg.

The primary outcome was the cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma and hepatic decompensation.

At 10 years follow-up, statin users showed a significantly reduced incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma vs nonusers (3.8% vs 8.0%; P < .001) as well as a significantly reduced incidence of hepatic decompensation (10.6% vs 19.5%; P < .001).

Incorporating FIB-4 scores, a surrogate marker for liver fibrosis, also showed that statin users were less likely to experience fibrosis progression, offering a potential mechanism of action for the observed reduction in adverse liver outcomes, Chung told GI & Hepatology News.

“Similar trends have been observed in prior observational studies, but our findings now support a real effect of statin use on fibrosis progression,” he said. “However, what strengthened our study was that the association remained consistent across multiple subgroups and sensitivity analyses.”

Another study published in Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology showed a reduced risk of developing severe liver disease in a Swedish cohort of noncirrhotic adults with chronic liver disease who used statins (n = 3862) compared with control patients with chronic liver disease (matched 1:1) and who did not use statins (hazard ratio [HR], 0.60). 

In that study, Rajani Sharma, MD, and colleagues found a protective association in both prefibrosis and fibrosis stages at diagnosis, and statin use was associated with reduced rates of progression to both cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HR, 0.62 and 0.44, respectively).

 

Exciting and Necessary Research

The research by Choi and colleagues is “exciting,” said Bubu Banini, MD, PhD, an assistant professor in digestive diseases at Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, in an interview.

Liver cancer prevalence has risen over the past few decades in the United States and worldwide, and the 5-year overall survival rate of liver cancer is less than 20%, Banini told GI & Hepatology News.

Clinicians often withhold statins out of fear of liver injury in persons with chronic liver disease; however, a takeaway from this study is that for persons with chronic liver disease who have indications for statin use, the medication should not be withheld, she said.

Of course, prospective studies are needed to replicate the results, Banini added.

The study findings were limited by several factors, including the inability to adjust for all potential confounding variables, lack of data on post-index treatments, and the use of wide, cumulative, defined daily dose categories to ensure statistical power, the researchers noted.

“Moving forward, randomized controlled trials are essential to establish a causal relationship and clarify the molecular and clinical pathways through which statins exert hepatoprotective effects,” Chung added.

Randomized controlled trials are also needed to determine whether statins can actually reduce the risk for hepatocellular carcinoma and hepatic decompensation in patients with chronic liver disease, and cost-effectiveness analyses may be essential for translating this evidence into clinical guidelines, he added.

 

Statins and HCC Risk in the General Population

A large cohort study, published in JAMA Network Open by Mara Sophie Vell, PhD, and colleagues, showed an association between reduced risk for hepatocellular carcinoma and statin use in the general population and in those at increased risk for liver disease.

The study, which included data for individuals aged 37-73 years from the UK Biobank, found a 15% reduced risk for new-onset liver disease and a 28% reduced risk for liver-related death among regular statin users than among nonusers (HR, 0.85 and 0.72, respectively). 

In addition, regular statin users showed a 74% reduced risk (P = .003) of developing hepatocellular carcinoma compared with those not using statins. The researchers identified a particular impact on liver disease risk reduction among men, individuals with diabetes, and patients with high levels of liver scarring at baseline based on the FIB-4 index.

A meta-analysis of 24 studies, previously published in the journal Cancers, showed a significant reduction of 46% in hepatocellular carcinoma risk among statins users compared with nonusers.

The researchers found this risk reduction was significant in subgroups of patients with diabetes, liver cirrhosis, and those on antiviral therapy, and they suggested that the antiangiogenic, immunomodulatory, antiproliferative, and antifibrotic properties of statins may contribute to their potential to reduce tumor growth or hepatocellular carcinoma development.

The meta-analysis authors noted that although most studies have reported a low risk for statin-induced hepatotoxicity, clinicians should proceed with caution in some patients with existing cirrhosis.

“If the patients are diagnosed with decompensated cirrhosis, then statins should be prescribed with caution at low doses,” they wrote.

Advocating statin use solely for chemoprevention may be premature based on observational data, Chung told GI & Hepatology News.

“However, in patients with [chronic liver disease] who already meet indications for statin therapy, the potential added benefit of reducing liver-related complications strengthens the rationale for their use,” he said. Future randomized clinical trials will be key to defining the risk-benefit profile in this context.

The study by Choi and colleagues was supported by the National Institutes of Health.

The study by Sharma and colleagues was supported by the Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden, and the Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York City; researchers were supported by grants from the Swedish Research Council, Center for Innovative Medicine, the Swedish Cancer Society, and the National Institutes of Health.

The study by Vell and colleagues had no outside funding.

The study by Mohaimenul Islam and colleagues was supported by the Ministry of Education and Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan.

Chung and Banini had no financial conflicts to disclose.

A version of this article appeared on Medscape.com.

A newly validated risk stratification tool could potentially improve hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance among patients with cirrhosis, based to a recent phase 3 biomarker validation study.

The Prognostic Liver Secretome Signature with Alpha-Fetoprotein plus Age, Male Sex, Albumin-Bilirubin, and Platelets (PAaM) score integrates both molecular and clinical variables to effectively classify cirrhosis patients by their risk of developing HCC, potentially sparing low-risk patients from unnecessary surveillance, lead author Naoto Fujiwara, MD, PhD, of the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, and colleagues reported.

“Hepatocellular carcinoma risk stratification is an urgent unmet need for cost-effective screening and early detection in patients with cirrhosis,” the investigators wrote in Gastroenterology. “This study represents the largest and first phase 3 biomarker validation study that establishes an integrative molecular/clinical score, PAaM, for HCC risk stratification.” 

The PAaM score combines an 8-protein prognostic liver secretome signature with traditional clinical variables, including alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels, age, sex, albumin-bilirubin levels, and platelet counts. The score stratifies patients into high-, intermediate-, and low-risk categories.

The PAaM score was validated using 2 independent prospective cohorts in the United States: the statewide Texas Hepatocellular Carcinoma Consortium (THCCC) and the nationwide Hepatocellular Carcinoma Early Detection Strategy (HEDS). Across both cohorts, 3,484 patients with cirrhosis were followed over time to assess the development of HCC.

In the Texas cohort, comprising 2,156 patients with cirrhosis, PAaM classified 19% of patients as high risk, 42% as intermediate risk, and 39% as low risk. The annual incidence of HCC was significantly different across these groups, with high-risk patients experiencing a 5.3% incidence rate, versus 2.7% for intermediate-risk patients and 0.6% for low-risk patients (P less than .001). Compared with those in the low-risk group, high-risk patients had sub-distribution hazard ratio (sHR) of 7.51 for developing HCC, while intermediate-risk patients had an sHR of 4.20.

In the nationwide HEDS cohort, which included 1,328 patients, PAaM similarly stratified 15% of participants as high risk, 41% as intermediate risk, and 44% as low risk. Annual HCC incidence rates were 6.2%, 1.8%, and 0.8% for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk patients, respectively (P less than .001). Among these patients, sub-distribution hazard ratios for HCC were 6.54 for high-risk patients and 1.77 for intermediate-risk patients, again underscoring the tool’s potential to identify individuals at elevated risk of developing HCC.

The PAaM score outperformed existing models like the aMAP score and the PLSec-AFP molecular marker alone, with consistent superiority across a diverse range of cirrhosis etiologies, including metabolic dysfunction–associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), and cured hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. 

Based on these findings, high-risk patients might benefit from more intensive screening strategies, Fujiwara and colleagues suggested, while intermediate-risk patients could continue with semi-annual ultrasound-based screening. Of note, low-risk patients—comprising about 40% of the study population—could potentially avoid frequent screenings, thus reducing healthcare costs and minimizing unnecessary interventions.

“This represents a significant step toward the clinical translation of an individual risk-based HCC screening strategy to improve early HCC detection and reduce HCC mortality,” the investigators concluded.This study was supported by various the National Cancer Institute, Veterans Affairs, the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, and others. The investigators disclosed additional relationships with Boston Scientific, Sirtex, Bayer, and others.

A newly validated risk stratification tool could potentially improve hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance among patients with cirrhosis, based to a recent phase 3 biomarker validation study.

The Prognostic Liver Secretome Signature with Alpha-Fetoprotein plus Age, Male Sex, Albumin-Bilirubin, and Platelets (PAaM) score integrates both molecular and clinical variables to effectively classify cirrhosis patients by their risk of developing HCC, potentially sparing low-risk patients from unnecessary surveillance, lead author Naoto Fujiwara, MD, PhD, of the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, and colleagues reported.

“Hepatocellular carcinoma risk stratification is an urgent unmet need for cost-effective screening and early detection in patients with cirrhosis,” the investigators wrote in Gastroenterology. “This study represents the largest and first phase 3 biomarker validation study that establishes an integrative molecular/clinical score, PAaM, for HCC risk stratification.” 

The PAaM score combines an 8-protein prognostic liver secretome signature with traditional clinical variables, including alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels, age, sex, albumin-bilirubin levels, and platelet counts. The score stratifies patients into high-, intermediate-, and low-risk categories.

The PAaM score was validated using 2 independent prospective cohorts in the United States: the statewide Texas Hepatocellular Carcinoma Consortium (THCCC) and the nationwide Hepatocellular Carcinoma Early Detection Strategy (HEDS). Across both cohorts, 3,484 patients with cirrhosis were followed over time to assess the development of HCC.

In the Texas cohort, comprising 2,156 patients with cirrhosis, PAaM classified 19% of patients as high risk, 42% as intermediate risk, and 39% as low risk. The annual incidence of HCC was significantly different across these groups, with high-risk patients experiencing a 5.3% incidence rate, versus 2.7% for intermediate-risk patients and 0.6% for low-risk patients (P less than .001). Compared with those in the low-risk group, high-risk patients had sub-distribution hazard ratio (sHR) of 7.51 for developing HCC, while intermediate-risk patients had an sHR of 4.20.

In the nationwide HEDS cohort, which included 1,328 patients, PAaM similarly stratified 15% of participants as high risk, 41% as intermediate risk, and 44% as low risk. Annual HCC incidence rates were 6.2%, 1.8%, and 0.8% for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk patients, respectively (P less than .001). Among these patients, sub-distribution hazard ratios for HCC were 6.54 for high-risk patients and 1.77 for intermediate-risk patients, again underscoring the tool’s potential to identify individuals at elevated risk of developing HCC.

The PAaM score outperformed existing models like the aMAP score and the PLSec-AFP molecular marker alone, with consistent superiority across a diverse range of cirrhosis etiologies, including metabolic dysfunction–associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), and cured hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. 

Based on these findings, high-risk patients might benefit from more intensive screening strategies, Fujiwara and colleagues suggested, while intermediate-risk patients could continue with semi-annual ultrasound-based screening. Of note, low-risk patients—comprising about 40% of the study population—could potentially avoid frequent screenings, thus reducing healthcare costs and minimizing unnecessary interventions.

“This represents a significant step toward the clinical translation of an individual risk-based HCC screening strategy to improve early HCC detection and reduce HCC mortality,” the investigators concluded.This study was supported by various the National Cancer Institute, Veterans Affairs, the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, and others. The investigators disclosed additional relationships with Boston Scientific, Sirtex, Bayer, and others.

A newly validated risk stratification tool could potentially improve hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance among patients with cirrhosis, based to a recent phase 3 biomarker validation study.

The Prognostic Liver Secretome Signature with Alpha-Fetoprotein plus Age, Male Sex, Albumin-Bilirubin, and Platelets (PAaM) score integrates both molecular and clinical variables to effectively classify cirrhosis patients by their risk of developing HCC, potentially sparing low-risk patients from unnecessary surveillance, lead author Naoto Fujiwara, MD, PhD, of the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, and colleagues reported.

“Hepatocellular carcinoma risk stratification is an urgent unmet need for cost-effective screening and early detection in patients with cirrhosis,” the investigators wrote in Gastroenterology. “This study represents the largest and first phase 3 biomarker validation study that establishes an integrative molecular/clinical score, PAaM, for HCC risk stratification.” 

The PAaM score combines an 8-protein prognostic liver secretome signature with traditional clinical variables, including alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels, age, sex, albumin-bilirubin levels, and platelet counts. The score stratifies patients into high-, intermediate-, and low-risk categories.

The PAaM score was validated using 2 independent prospective cohorts in the United States: the statewide Texas Hepatocellular Carcinoma Consortium (THCCC) and the nationwide Hepatocellular Carcinoma Early Detection Strategy (HEDS). Across both cohorts, 3,484 patients with cirrhosis were followed over time to assess the development of HCC.

In the Texas cohort, comprising 2,156 patients with cirrhosis, PAaM classified 19% of patients as high risk, 42% as intermediate risk, and 39% as low risk. The annual incidence of HCC was significantly different across these groups, with high-risk patients experiencing a 5.3% incidence rate, versus 2.7% for intermediate-risk patients and 0.6% for low-risk patients (P less than .001). Compared with those in the low-risk group, high-risk patients had sub-distribution hazard ratio (sHR) of 7.51 for developing HCC, while intermediate-risk patients had an sHR of 4.20.

In the nationwide HEDS cohort, which included 1,328 patients, PAaM similarly stratified 15% of participants as high risk, 41% as intermediate risk, and 44% as low risk. Annual HCC incidence rates were 6.2%, 1.8%, and 0.8% for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk patients, respectively (P less than .001). Among these patients, sub-distribution hazard ratios for HCC were 6.54 for high-risk patients and 1.77 for intermediate-risk patients, again underscoring the tool’s potential to identify individuals at elevated risk of developing HCC.

The PAaM score outperformed existing models like the aMAP score and the PLSec-AFP molecular marker alone, with consistent superiority across a diverse range of cirrhosis etiologies, including metabolic dysfunction–associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), and cured hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. 

Based on these findings, high-risk patients might benefit from more intensive screening strategies, Fujiwara and colleagues suggested, while intermediate-risk patients could continue with semi-annual ultrasound-based screening. Of note, low-risk patients—comprising about 40% of the study population—could potentially avoid frequent screenings, thus reducing healthcare costs and minimizing unnecessary interventions.

“This represents a significant step toward the clinical translation of an individual risk-based HCC screening strategy to improve early HCC detection and reduce HCC mortality,” the investigators concluded.This study was supported by various the National Cancer Institute, Veterans Affairs, the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, and others. The investigators disclosed additional relationships with Boston Scientific, Sirtex, Bayer, and others.

A new prognostic model could potentially predict and stratify the risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) who are noncirrhotic and not indicated for antiviral treatment.

The model, called Revised REACH-B or reREACH-B, stems from cohort studies in Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan, and looks at the nonlinear parabolic association between serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA levels and HCC risk.

“Current clinical practice guidelines don’t advocate antiviral treatment for patients with CHB who don’t show elevated alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels, even in those with high HBV viral loads,” said coauthor Young-Suk Lim, MD, PhD, professor of gastroenterology at the University of Ulsan College of Medicine and Asan Medical Center in Seoul, South Korea.

“This stance is rooted in the notion that patients in the immune-tolerant phase are at very low risk for developing HCC,” Lim said. “However, the immune-tolerant phase includes patients with HBV DNA levels who face the highest risk for HCC, and many patients with moderate HBV viremia fall into an undefined gray zone.”

The study was published in Annals of Internal Medicine.

 

Validating reREACH-B

During a course of CHB, HBV viral loads and HCC risks evolve over time because of viral replication and host immune responses, Lim explained. Most patients typically move to seroclearance and an “inactive hepatitis” phase, but about 10%-20% can progress to a “reactivation” phase, where HBV DNA levels and ALT levels increase, which can increase HCC risk as well.

In a previous cohort study in Taiwan, a prognostic model called Risk Estimation for HCC in CHB — or REACH-B — found the risk for HCC increases tenfold with increasing levels of HBV DNA up to 5 log10IU/mL in noncirrhotic patients with CHB, regardless of ALT levels. Another cohort study in South Korea found a nonlinear parabolic association between HCC risk and HBV DNA levels up to 9 log10 IU/mL, with the highest risks found for moderate HBV DNA levels around 6 log₁₀ IU/mL.

In this study, Lim and colleagues developed a prognostic model to integrate the nonlinear relationship and validated it externally, as well as compared it with the previous REACH-B model. The Revised REACH-B model incorporates six variables: age, sex, platelet count, HBV DNA level, ALT, and hepatitis B e-antigen (HBeAg).

The study included 14,378 treatment-naive, noncirrhotic adults with CHB and serum ALT levels < two times the upper limit of normal for at least 1 year and serum hepatitis B surface antigen for at least 6 months. The internal validation cohort included 6,949 patients from Asan Medical Center, and the external validation cohort included 7,429 patients from previous studies in Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan.

Among the Asan cohort, the mean age was 45 years, 29.9% were HBeAg positive, median HBV DNA levels were 3.1 log₁₀ IU/mL, and the median ALT level was 25 U/L. In the external cohort, the mean age was 46 years, 21% were HBeAg positive, median HBV DNA levels were 3.4 log₁₀ IU/mL, and the median ALT level was 20 U/L.

In the Asan cohort, 435 patients (6.3%) developed HCC during a median follow-up of 10 years. The annual HCC incidence rate was 0.63 per 100 person-years, and the estimated cumulative probability of developing HCC at 10 years was 6.4%.

In the external cohort, 467 patients (6.3%) developed HCC during a median follow-up of 12 years. The annual HCC incidence rate was 0.42 per 100 person-years, and the estimated cumulative probability of developing HCC at 10 years was 3.1%.

Overall, the association between HBV viral load and HCC risk was linear in the HBeAg-negative groups and inverse in the HBeAg-positive groups, with the association between HBV viral load and HCC risk showing a nonlinear parabolic pattern.

Across both cohorts, patients with HBV DNA levels between 5 and 6 log₁₀ IU/mL had the highest risk for HCC in both the HBeAg-negative and HBeAg-positive groups, which was more than eight times higher than those HBV DNA levels ≤ 3 log₁₀ IU/mL.

For internal validation, the Revised REACH-B model had a c-statistic of 0.844 and 5-year area under the curve of 0.864. For external validation across the three external cohorts, the reREACH-B had c-statistics of 0.804, 0.808, and 0.813, and 5-year area under the curve of 0.839, 0.860, and 0.865.

In addition, the revised model yielded a greater positive net benefit than the REACH-B model in the threshold probability range between 0% and 18%.

“These analyses indicate the reREACH-B model can be a valuable tool in clinical practice, aiding in timely management decisions,” Lim said.

 

Considering Prognostic Models

This study highlights the importance of recognizing that the association between HBV DNA viral load and HCC risk isn’t linear, said Norah Terrault, MD, chief of Gastroenterology and Hepatology at the Keck School of Medicine at the University of Southern California, Los Angeles.

“In contrast to most chronic liver diseases where liver cancer develops only among those with advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis, people with chronic hepatitis B are at risk prior to the development of cirrhosis,” she said. “Risk prediction scores for HCC can be a useful means of identifying those without cirrhosis who should be enrolled in HCC surveillance programs.”

For instance, patients with HBV DNA levels < 3 log₁₀ IU/mL or > 8 log₁₀ IU/mL don’t have an increased risk, Terrault noted. However, the highest risk group appears to be around 5-6 log₁₀ IU/mL.

“Future risk prediction models should acknowledge that relationship in modeling HCC risk,” she said. “The re-REACH-B provides modest improvement over the REACH-B, but further validation of this score in more diverse cohorts is essential.”

The study received financial support from the Korean government and grants from the Patient-Centered Clinical Research Coordinating Center of the National Evidence-based Healthcare Collaborating Agency and the National R&D Program for Cancer Control through the National Cancer Center, which is funded by Korea’s Ministry of Health and Welfare. Lim and Terrault reported no relevant disclosures.

A version of this article first appeared on Medscape.com.

A new prognostic model could potentially predict and stratify the risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) who are noncirrhotic and not indicated for antiviral treatment.

The model, called Revised REACH-B or reREACH-B, stems from cohort studies in Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan, and looks at the nonlinear parabolic association between serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA levels and HCC risk.

“Current clinical practice guidelines don’t advocate antiviral treatment for patients with CHB who don’t show elevated alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels, even in those with high HBV viral loads,” said coauthor Young-Suk Lim, MD, PhD, professor of gastroenterology at the University of Ulsan College of Medicine and Asan Medical Center in Seoul, South Korea.

“This stance is rooted in the notion that patients in the immune-tolerant phase are at very low risk for developing HCC,” Lim said. “However, the immune-tolerant phase includes patients with HBV DNA levels who face the highest risk for HCC, and many patients with moderate HBV viremia fall into an undefined gray zone.”

The study was published in Annals of Internal Medicine.

 

Validating reREACH-B

During a course of CHB, HBV viral loads and HCC risks evolve over time because of viral replication and host immune responses, Lim explained. Most patients typically move to seroclearance and an “inactive hepatitis” phase, but about 10%-20% can progress to a “reactivation” phase, where HBV DNA levels and ALT levels increase, which can increase HCC risk as well.

In a previous cohort study in Taiwan, a prognostic model called Risk Estimation for HCC in CHB — or REACH-B — found the risk for HCC increases tenfold with increasing levels of HBV DNA up to 5 log10IU/mL in noncirrhotic patients with CHB, regardless of ALT levels. Another cohort study in South Korea found a nonlinear parabolic association between HCC risk and HBV DNA levels up to 9 log10 IU/mL, with the highest risks found for moderate HBV DNA levels around 6 log₁₀ IU/mL.

In this study, Lim and colleagues developed a prognostic model to integrate the nonlinear relationship and validated it externally, as well as compared it with the previous REACH-B model. The Revised REACH-B model incorporates six variables: age, sex, platelet count, HBV DNA level, ALT, and hepatitis B e-antigen (HBeAg).

The study included 14,378 treatment-naive, noncirrhotic adults with CHB and serum ALT levels < two times the upper limit of normal for at least 1 year and serum hepatitis B surface antigen for at least 6 months. The internal validation cohort included 6,949 patients from Asan Medical Center, and the external validation cohort included 7,429 patients from previous studies in Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan.

Among the Asan cohort, the mean age was 45 years, 29.9% were HBeAg positive, median HBV DNA levels were 3.1 log₁₀ IU/mL, and the median ALT level was 25 U/L. In the external cohort, the mean age was 46 years, 21% were HBeAg positive, median HBV DNA levels were 3.4 log₁₀ IU/mL, and the median ALT level was 20 U/L.

In the Asan cohort, 435 patients (6.3%) developed HCC during a median follow-up of 10 years. The annual HCC incidence rate was 0.63 per 100 person-years, and the estimated cumulative probability of developing HCC at 10 years was 6.4%.

In the external cohort, 467 patients (6.3%) developed HCC during a median follow-up of 12 years. The annual HCC incidence rate was 0.42 per 100 person-years, and the estimated cumulative probability of developing HCC at 10 years was 3.1%.

Overall, the association between HBV viral load and HCC risk was linear in the HBeAg-negative groups and inverse in the HBeAg-positive groups, with the association between HBV viral load and HCC risk showing a nonlinear parabolic pattern.

Across both cohorts, patients with HBV DNA levels between 5 and 6 log₁₀ IU/mL had the highest risk for HCC in both the HBeAg-negative and HBeAg-positive groups, which was more than eight times higher than those HBV DNA levels ≤ 3 log₁₀ IU/mL.

For internal validation, the Revised REACH-B model had a c-statistic of 0.844 and 5-year area under the curve of 0.864. For external validation across the three external cohorts, the reREACH-B had c-statistics of 0.804, 0.808, and 0.813, and 5-year area under the curve of 0.839, 0.860, and 0.865.

In addition, the revised model yielded a greater positive net benefit than the REACH-B model in the threshold probability range between 0% and 18%.

“These analyses indicate the reREACH-B model can be a valuable tool in clinical practice, aiding in timely management decisions,” Lim said.

 

Considering Prognostic Models

This study highlights the importance of recognizing that the association between HBV DNA viral load and HCC risk isn’t linear, said Norah Terrault, MD, chief of Gastroenterology and Hepatology at the Keck School of Medicine at the University of Southern California, Los Angeles.

“In contrast to most chronic liver diseases where liver cancer develops only among those with advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis, people with chronic hepatitis B are at risk prior to the development of cirrhosis,” she said. “Risk prediction scores for HCC can be a useful means of identifying those without cirrhosis who should be enrolled in HCC surveillance programs.”

For instance, patients with HBV DNA levels < 3 log₁₀ IU/mL or > 8 log₁₀ IU/mL don’t have an increased risk, Terrault noted. However, the highest risk group appears to be around 5-6 log₁₀ IU/mL.

“Future risk prediction models should acknowledge that relationship in modeling HCC risk,” she said. “The re-REACH-B provides modest improvement over the REACH-B, but further validation of this score in more diverse cohorts is essential.”

The study received financial support from the Korean government and grants from the Patient-Centered Clinical Research Coordinating Center of the National Evidence-based Healthcare Collaborating Agency and the National R&D Program for Cancer Control through the National Cancer Center, which is funded by Korea’s Ministry of Health and Welfare. Lim and Terrault reported no relevant disclosures.

A version of this article first appeared on Medscape.com.

A new prognostic model could potentially predict and stratify the risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) who are noncirrhotic and not indicated for antiviral treatment.

The model, called Revised REACH-B or reREACH-B, stems from cohort studies in Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan, and looks at the nonlinear parabolic association between serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA levels and HCC risk.

“Current clinical practice guidelines don’t advocate antiviral treatment for patients with CHB who don’t show elevated alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels, even in those with high HBV viral loads,” said coauthor Young-Suk Lim, MD, PhD, professor of gastroenterology at the University of Ulsan College of Medicine and Asan Medical Center in Seoul, South Korea.

“This stance is rooted in the notion that patients in the immune-tolerant phase are at very low risk for developing HCC,” Lim said. “However, the immune-tolerant phase includes patients with HBV DNA levels who face the highest risk for HCC, and many patients with moderate HBV viremia fall into an undefined gray zone.”

The study was published in Annals of Internal Medicine.

 

Validating reREACH-B

During a course of CHB, HBV viral loads and HCC risks evolve over time because of viral replication and host immune responses, Lim explained. Most patients typically move to seroclearance and an “inactive hepatitis” phase, but about 10%-20% can progress to a “reactivation” phase, where HBV DNA levels and ALT levels increase, which can increase HCC risk as well.

In a previous cohort study in Taiwan, a prognostic model called Risk Estimation for HCC in CHB — or REACH-B — found the risk for HCC increases tenfold with increasing levels of HBV DNA up to 5 log10IU/mL in noncirrhotic patients with CHB, regardless of ALT levels. Another cohort study in South Korea found a nonlinear parabolic association between HCC risk and HBV DNA levels up to 9 log10 IU/mL, with the highest risks found for moderate HBV DNA levels around 6 log₁₀ IU/mL.

In this study, Lim and colleagues developed a prognostic model to integrate the nonlinear relationship and validated it externally, as well as compared it with the previous REACH-B model. The Revised REACH-B model incorporates six variables: age, sex, platelet count, HBV DNA level, ALT, and hepatitis B e-antigen (HBeAg).

The study included 14,378 treatment-naive, noncirrhotic adults with CHB and serum ALT levels < two times the upper limit of normal for at least 1 year and serum hepatitis B surface antigen for at least 6 months. The internal validation cohort included 6,949 patients from Asan Medical Center, and the external validation cohort included 7,429 patients from previous studies in Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan.

Among the Asan cohort, the mean age was 45 years, 29.9% were HBeAg positive, median HBV DNA levels were 3.1 log₁₀ IU/mL, and the median ALT level was 25 U/L. In the external cohort, the mean age was 46 years, 21% were HBeAg positive, median HBV DNA levels were 3.4 log₁₀ IU/mL, and the median ALT level was 20 U/L.

In the Asan cohort, 435 patients (6.3%) developed HCC during a median follow-up of 10 years. The annual HCC incidence rate was 0.63 per 100 person-years, and the estimated cumulative probability of developing HCC at 10 years was 6.4%.

In the external cohort, 467 patients (6.3%) developed HCC during a median follow-up of 12 years. The annual HCC incidence rate was 0.42 per 100 person-years, and the estimated cumulative probability of developing HCC at 10 years was 3.1%.

Overall, the association between HBV viral load and HCC risk was linear in the HBeAg-negative groups and inverse in the HBeAg-positive groups, with the association between HBV viral load and HCC risk showing a nonlinear parabolic pattern.

Across both cohorts, patients with HBV DNA levels between 5 and 6 log₁₀ IU/mL had the highest risk for HCC in both the HBeAg-negative and HBeAg-positive groups, which was more than eight times higher than those HBV DNA levels ≤ 3 log₁₀ IU/mL.

For internal validation, the Revised REACH-B model had a c-statistic of 0.844 and 5-year area under the curve of 0.864. For external validation across the three external cohorts, the reREACH-B had c-statistics of 0.804, 0.808, and 0.813, and 5-year area under the curve of 0.839, 0.860, and 0.865.

In addition, the revised model yielded a greater positive net benefit than the REACH-B model in the threshold probability range between 0% and 18%.

“These analyses indicate the reREACH-B model can be a valuable tool in clinical practice, aiding in timely management decisions,” Lim said.

 

Considering Prognostic Models

This study highlights the importance of recognizing that the association between HBV DNA viral load and HCC risk isn’t linear, said Norah Terrault, MD, chief of Gastroenterology and Hepatology at the Keck School of Medicine at the University of Southern California, Los Angeles.

“In contrast to most chronic liver diseases where liver cancer develops only among those with advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis, people with chronic hepatitis B are at risk prior to the development of cirrhosis,” she said. “Risk prediction scores for HCC can be a useful means of identifying those without cirrhosis who should be enrolled in HCC surveillance programs.”

For instance, patients with HBV DNA levels < 3 log₁₀ IU/mL or > 8 log₁₀ IU/mL don’t have an increased risk, Terrault noted. However, the highest risk group appears to be around 5-6 log₁₀ IU/mL.

“Future risk prediction models should acknowledge that relationship in modeling HCC risk,” she said. “The re-REACH-B provides modest improvement over the REACH-B, but further validation of this score in more diverse cohorts is essential.”

The study received financial support from the Korean government and grants from the Patient-Centered Clinical Research Coordinating Center of the National Evidence-based Healthcare Collaborating Agency and the National R&D Program for Cancer Control through the National Cancer Center, which is funded by Korea’s Ministry of Health and Welfare. Lim and Terrault reported no relevant disclosures.

A version of this article first appeared on Medscape.com.

Lipophilic statins are associated with reduced risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among patients with hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis, according to investigators.

These findings also pave the way for new research into targeted therapies, personalized prevention strategies, and broader applications in high-risk populations, Erik Almazan, MD, and Raymond T. Chung, MD, of Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, reported.

“Statins, metformin, and aspirin are low-cost medications often prescribed for the management of diseases associated with metabolic syndrome that have been associated with reduced HCC risk, the investigators wrote in Gastro Hep Advances. “Despite these findings, few studies have focused on populations in the US or without hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV).”

To address this knowledge gap, Almazan and Chung retrospectively analyzed data from 3,677 patients with hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis, drawn from the All of Us Controlled Tier Dataset v7, which spans May 2018 to July 2022. 

Within this population, 94 patients had HCC, while 3,583 served as controls. Lipophilic statin use was compared with hydrophilic statins, metformin, and aspirin. Multivariable logistic regression controlled for confounders including age, sex, race, and the presence of HBV or HCV.

Participants in the HCC cohort were older (mean age, 64 vs 58 years), more likely to be male (64.1% vs 50.0%), and had higher rates of chronic HBV (9.6% vs 2.5%) and chronic HCV (36.2% vs. 20.5%) compared to controls (P ≤ .01).

 

As a class, lipophilic statins were associated with a 36% reduced risk of HCC (odds ratio [OR], 0.64; 95% CI, 0.41-1.00; P < .05). Specifically, atorvastatin was associated with a 41% reduced risk (OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.37-0.93; P = .02), while simvastatin was associated with a 54% reduced risk (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.22-0.97; P = .04). 

In contrast, hydrophilic statins, such as pravastatin and rosuvastatin, showed no significant association with HCC risk. Similarly, no protective association was observed for metformin or aspirin.

These findings suggest that lipophilic statins could provide a practical and cost-effective strategy for HCC prevention, particularly in patients with metabolic syndrome or alcohol-related liver disease, according to Almazan and Chung. These high-risk groups often lack accessible and noninvasive prevention options, further highlighting the clinical relevance of these results.

The investigators proposed that the chemopreventive effects of lipophilic statins may be linked to their ability to passively diffuse into cells and modulate pathways involved in cancer development, such as the mevalonate pathway. These potential mechanisms remain poorly understood.

Almazan and Chung also pointed out several study limitations, including lack of granular data on statin doses and treatment duration, absence of serologic and imaging confirmation of hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis, and a study cohort drawn from populations historically underrepresented in medical research, potentially limiting generalizability to the broader US population. 

“Nevertheless, we believe that our study adds valuable information to the literature on statin use and its association with HCC with data from a US-based sample inclusive of individuals with risk factors other than HBV and HCV,” the investigators wrote. “These results provide further support for trials (such as NCT05028829) evaluating the utility of lipophilic statins for chemoprevention in HCC for persons at risk.”This study was supported by various National Institutes of Health grants. The investigators disclosed no conflicts of interest.

Lipophilic statins are associated with reduced risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among patients with hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis, according to investigators.

These findings also pave the way for new research into targeted therapies, personalized prevention strategies, and broader applications in high-risk populations, Erik Almazan, MD, and Raymond T. Chung, MD, of Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, reported.

“Statins, metformin, and aspirin are low-cost medications often prescribed for the management of diseases associated with metabolic syndrome that have been associated with reduced HCC risk, the investigators wrote in Gastro Hep Advances. “Despite these findings, few studies have focused on populations in the US or without hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV).”

To address this knowledge gap, Almazan and Chung retrospectively analyzed data from 3,677 patients with hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis, drawn from the All of Us Controlled Tier Dataset v7, which spans May 2018 to July 2022. 

Within this population, 94 patients had HCC, while 3,583 served as controls. Lipophilic statin use was compared with hydrophilic statins, metformin, and aspirin. Multivariable logistic regression controlled for confounders including age, sex, race, and the presence of HBV or HCV.

Participants in the HCC cohort were older (mean age, 64 vs 58 years), more likely to be male (64.1% vs 50.0%), and had higher rates of chronic HBV (9.6% vs 2.5%) and chronic HCV (36.2% vs. 20.5%) compared to controls (P ≤ .01).

 

As a class, lipophilic statins were associated with a 36% reduced risk of HCC (odds ratio [OR], 0.64; 95% CI, 0.41-1.00; P < .05). Specifically, atorvastatin was associated with a 41% reduced risk (OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.37-0.93; P = .02), while simvastatin was associated with a 54% reduced risk (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.22-0.97; P = .04). 

In contrast, hydrophilic statins, such as pravastatin and rosuvastatin, showed no significant association with HCC risk. Similarly, no protective association was observed for metformin or aspirin.

These findings suggest that lipophilic statins could provide a practical and cost-effective strategy for HCC prevention, particularly in patients with metabolic syndrome or alcohol-related liver disease, according to Almazan and Chung. These high-risk groups often lack accessible and noninvasive prevention options, further highlighting the clinical relevance of these results.

The investigators proposed that the chemopreventive effects of lipophilic statins may be linked to their ability to passively diffuse into cells and modulate pathways involved in cancer development, such as the mevalonate pathway. These potential mechanisms remain poorly understood.

Almazan and Chung also pointed out several study limitations, including lack of granular data on statin doses and treatment duration, absence of serologic and imaging confirmation of hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis, and a study cohort drawn from populations historically underrepresented in medical research, potentially limiting generalizability to the broader US population. 

“Nevertheless, we believe that our study adds valuable information to the literature on statin use and its association with HCC with data from a US-based sample inclusive of individuals with risk factors other than HBV and HCV,” the investigators wrote. “These results provide further support for trials (such as NCT05028829) evaluating the utility of lipophilic statins for chemoprevention in HCC for persons at risk.”This study was supported by various National Institutes of Health grants. The investigators disclosed no conflicts of interest.

Lipophilic statins are associated with reduced risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among patients with hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis, according to investigators.

These findings also pave the way for new research into targeted therapies, personalized prevention strategies, and broader applications in high-risk populations, Erik Almazan, MD, and Raymond T. Chung, MD, of Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, reported.

“Statins, metformin, and aspirin are low-cost medications often prescribed for the management of diseases associated with metabolic syndrome that have been associated with reduced HCC risk, the investigators wrote in Gastro Hep Advances. “Despite these findings, few studies have focused on populations in the US or without hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV).”

To address this knowledge gap, Almazan and Chung retrospectively analyzed data from 3,677 patients with hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis, drawn from the All of Us Controlled Tier Dataset v7, which spans May 2018 to July 2022. 

Within this population, 94 patients had HCC, while 3,583 served as controls. Lipophilic statin use was compared with hydrophilic statins, metformin, and aspirin. Multivariable logistic regression controlled for confounders including age, sex, race, and the presence of HBV or HCV.

Participants in the HCC cohort were older (mean age, 64 vs 58 years), more likely to be male (64.1% vs 50.0%), and had higher rates of chronic HBV (9.6% vs 2.5%) and chronic HCV (36.2% vs. 20.5%) compared to controls (P ≤ .01).

 

As a class, lipophilic statins were associated with a 36% reduced risk of HCC (odds ratio [OR], 0.64; 95% CI, 0.41-1.00; P < .05). Specifically, atorvastatin was associated with a 41% reduced risk (OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.37-0.93; P = .02), while simvastatin was associated with a 54% reduced risk (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.22-0.97; P = .04). 

In contrast, hydrophilic statins, such as pravastatin and rosuvastatin, showed no significant association with HCC risk. Similarly, no protective association was observed for metformin or aspirin.

These findings suggest that lipophilic statins could provide a practical and cost-effective strategy for HCC prevention, particularly in patients with metabolic syndrome or alcohol-related liver disease, according to Almazan and Chung. These high-risk groups often lack accessible and noninvasive prevention options, further highlighting the clinical relevance of these results.

The investigators proposed that the chemopreventive effects of lipophilic statins may be linked to their ability to passively diffuse into cells and modulate pathways involved in cancer development, such as the mevalonate pathway. These potential mechanisms remain poorly understood.

Almazan and Chung also pointed out several study limitations, including lack of granular data on statin doses and treatment duration, absence of serologic and imaging confirmation of hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis, and a study cohort drawn from populations historically underrepresented in medical research, potentially limiting generalizability to the broader US population. 

“Nevertheless, we believe that our study adds valuable information to the literature on statin use and its association with HCC with data from a US-based sample inclusive of individuals with risk factors other than HBV and HCV,” the investigators wrote. “These results provide further support for trials (such as NCT05028829) evaluating the utility of lipophilic statins for chemoprevention in HCC for persons at risk.”This study was supported by various National Institutes of Health grants. The investigators disclosed no conflicts of interest.